Variability of an adaptive capacity index to construction method and socio-economic context

Abstract

Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity are key concepts for understanding the societal preparedness for, and impact of, natural hazards and environmental change. These metrics are often assessed through composite indicators, which are valued for the simplicity of their interpretation and use but are also subject to significant uncertainties associated with the construction process and input data choices. While adaptive capacity is frequently treated as a sub-component in broader vulnerability or resilience assessments, fewer studies focus specifically on adaptive capacity itself or aim to refine its assessment methods. This study addresses these gaps by (1) evaluating how an adaptive capacity composite index is shaped by the index construction process and the context of the sample; and (2) developing a methodology to create an index that synthesizes information from multiple index variants. We construct adaptive capacity indices for U.S. counties using alternative combinations of variable selection, weighting, and aggregation choices, and compare results across socio-economic contexts. Our findings demonstrate that index values are sensitive to construction decisions and to the spatial extent and characteristics of the sample, with implications for how adaptive capacity is interpreted and applied in hazard and climate risk assessments.